Publications

Working Paper
George Akerlof and Pascal Michaillat. Working Paper. “Beetles: Biased Promotions and Persistence of False Belief.”.Abstract
This paper develops a theory of promotion based on evaluations by the already promoted. The already promoted show some favoritism toward candidates for promotion with similar beliefs, just as beetles are more prone to eat the eggs of other species. With such egg-eating bias, false beliefs may not be eliminated by the promotion system. Our main application is to scientific revolutions: when tenured scientists show favoritism toward candidates for tenure with similar beliefs, science may not converge to the true paradigm. We extend the statistical concept of power to science: the power of the tenure test is the probability (absent any bias) of denying tenure to a scientist who adheres to the false paradigm, just as the power of any statistical test is the probability of rejecting a false null hypothesis. The power of the tenure test depends on the norms regarding the appropriate criteria to use in promotion and the empirical evidence available to apply these criteria. We find that the scientific fields at risk of being captured by false paradigms are those with low power. Another application is to hierarchical organizations: egg-eating bias can result in the capture of the top of organizations by the wrong-minded.
akerlofmichaillat2017.pdf
Magdalena Ignatowski, Josef Korte, and Charlotte Werger. Working Paper. “"Between Capture and Discretion -- The Determinants of Distressed Bank Treatment and Expected Government Support"”.Abstract

In this paper we analyze how sources of political influence relate to the actual regulatory treatment of distressed banks and to the expectation of bank support provided by the government. We assemble a unique dataset connecting U.S. banks' sources of influence (e.g., lobbying expenditures, proximity to legislative committee, prior affiliation with regulatory or government institutions) to bank financial data, actual bank supervisory actions and market-inferred expected government support. Employing this novel data, we cast some light on how regulatory decision making is affected by these sources of influence. Our findings suggest that banks' inuence exertion matters for the regulatory treatment of distressed banks as well as for the expectation of support regardless of bank distress. Several conditions increase the effectiveness of sources of influence in actual regulatory treatment: Lobbying activities are more effective with deteriorating capital ratios and with the aid of former politicians; effectiveness of proximity to representatives of legislative committee increases with the amount of campaign contributions from the financial industry. However, there seems to be a limit to the impact of influence when it comes to closure decisions of the most severely distressed banks. Our findings are instructive for understanding the political influence banks can leverage on shaping regulatory decisions, and propose increased attention to the relations between legislators, regulators, and
banks.

ignatowskikortewerger2014.pdf
David Parsley and Helen Popper. Working Paper. “"Blue States and Red States: Business Cycle Divergence and Risk Sharing"”.Abstract

We examine business cycle divergence and risk sharing within the United States.
In doing so, we also separately examine states whose populations have consistently
voted either Democrat (Blue) or Republican (Red) in national elections. We find that
states' business cycles have diverged markedly since the start of this century: they
are now more asynchronous than is typical across the international borders of distinct
countries. This divergence is even more striking between Blue states and Red states.

At the same time, we find that states smooth their consumption across these diverging business cycles: they share risk much more than is typical internationally. While they share most of their idiosyncratic risk through nancial markets, Blue, Red and swing states share the remainder of their risk in very dierent ways. Red states smooth the remainder largely through fiscal flows (taxes and transfers), while they are left with more than twice the idiosyncratic risk of the other states. In contrast, swing states smooth the remainder largely through migration, while fiscal flows hardly matter at all. Finally, Blue states smooth the remaining idiosyncratic risk through a combination of fiscal flows, migration and the purchases of consumer durables; and they are left with little residual risk.

parsleypopper2018.pdf
Amory Gethin, Clara Martínez-Toledano, and Thomas Piketty. Working Paper. “Brahmin Left versus Merchant Right: Changing Political Cleavages in 21 Western Democracies, 1948-2020”. Publisher's VersionAbstract
This paper provides new evidence on the long-run evolution of political cleavages in 21 Western democracies by exploiting a new database on the vote by socioeconomic characteristic covering over 300 elections held between 1948 and 2020. In the 1950s-1960s, the vote for democratic, labor, social democratic, socialist, and affiliated parties was associated with lower-educated and low-income voters. It has gradually become associated with higher-educated voters, giving rise to “multi-elite party systems” in the 2000s-2010s: high-education elites now vote for the “left”, while high-income elites continue to vote for the “right”. This transition has been accelerated by the rise of green and anti-immigration movements, whose key distinctive feature is to concentrate the votes of the higher-educated and lower-educated electorate, respectively. Combining our database with historical data on political parties’ programs, we provide evidence that the reversal of the educational cleavage is strongly linked to the emergence of a new “sociocultural” axis of political conflict. We also discuss the evolution of other political cleavages related to age, geography, religion, gender, and the integration of new ethnoreligious minorities.
gethin_et_al_brahmin_left_merchant_right_01.pdf
Sean Gailmard. Working Paper. “"Building a New Imperial State: Agency Problems and Separation of Powers in English North America"”.Abstract

This paper explores the strategic foundations of separation of powers in the English empire of North America. A hierarchical principal-agent model of this setting demonstrates that imperial governors may extract more rents from colonial settlers than the imperial crown prefers. This lowers the crown's own rents, and inhibits economic development by settlers. Separation of powers within colonies allows settlers to restrain the governor at low direct cost to the crown. This restraint shrinks the share of the economy extracted jointly by the governor and the crown, but may thereby induce greater economic development. When eciency gains of extracting from a larger pie outweigh distributive losses from a smaller crown share, the crown supports separation of powers within colonies. The model highlights the role of agency problems as a distinct factor in New World institutional development.

gailmard2016.pdf
Marion Mercier, Arthur Silve, and Benjamin Tremblay-Auger. Working Paper. “Building Reputation: Proxy Wars and Transnational Identities ”.Abstract
In the context of a global security framework that mitigates interstate conflicts, nationstates
establish a reputation for resolve by supporting foreign insurrections. Our theoretical
predictions indicate that states with a greater number of co-ethnic groups abroad are more
inclined to endorse foreign uprisings, resulting in higher political inclusion for such groups.
With a dataset comprising over 280,000 ethnic group × sponsor state × target state × year
observations, our analysis corroborates the role of reputation-building through co-ethnicity
narratives as a determinant of sponsor state engagement. We argue that this mechanism
engenders political concessions within target states, ultimately benefiting groups associated
with reputed potential sponsors.
silve_et_al_proxy_wars.pdf
Tommaso Aquilante. Working Paper. “"Bureaucrats or Politicians? Political Parties and Antidumping in the US"”. aquilante2015.pdf
Ceren Baysan. Working Paper. “Can More Information Lead to More Voter Polarization? Experimental Evidence from Turkey”.Abstract
This study shows how efforts in persuasive communication affect voter participation in the deterioration of democratic norms in Turkey. I do this by estimating the effect of two randomized door-to-door information campaigns on voter behavior. The campaigns reached over 260,000 voters right before a referendum on institutional changes to weaken constraints on the executive branch. The party opposing the referendum delivered messages on either economy and terrorism related policy outcomes or implications of the institutional change. Each campaign had a zero average effect, but increased political polarization due to heterogeneous effects. These effects persisted fourteen months later in two elections.
baysan2018_rev.pdf
Michal Bauer, Christopher Blattman, Julie Chytilova, Joseph Henrich, Edward Miguel, and Tamar Mitts. Working Paper. “"Can War Foster Cooperation?"”.Abstract

In the past decade, nearly 20 studies have found a strong, persistent pattern in surveys and behavioral experiments from over 40 countries: individual exposure to war violence tends to increase social cooperation at the local level, including community participation and prosocial behavior. Thus while war has many negative legacies for individuals and societies, it appears to leave a positive legacy in terms of local cooperation and civic engagement. We discuss, synthesize and reanalyze the emerging body of evidence, and weigh alternative explanations. There is some indication that war violence especially enhances in-group or "parochial" norms and preferences, a finding that, if true, suggests that the rising social cohesion we document need not promote broader peace.

baueretal2016.pdf
Gabriel Chodorow-Reich and Gita Gopinath. Working Paper. “Cash and the Economy: Evidence from India's Demonetization (under revision for the QJE)”.
Gabriel Chodorow-Reich and Gita Gopinath. Working Paper. “Cash and the Economy: Evidence from India's Demonetization (under revision for the QJE)”.
Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, Gita Gopinath, Prachi Mishra, and Abhinav Narayanan. Working Paper. “Cash and the Economy: Evidence from India's Demonetization under revision for the QJE”.
Yannick Pengl, Philip Roessler, and Valeria Rueda. Working Paper. “Cash Crops, Print Technologies and the Politicization of Ethnicity in Africa”. cash-crops-print-technologies-and-the-politicization-of-ethnicity-in-africa.pdf
Natalie Eslick. Working Paper. CEDAW Article Brief Descriptions. Initiative on VAW, Carr Center, Harvard Kennedy School.Abstract

This document provides short summaries of the articles of CEDAW.

cedaw_article_brief_descriptions_.pdf
Working Paper. CEDAW - OP Article 8 chart - Optional Protocol "Article 8 Inquiry". Initiative on VAW, Carr Center, Harvard Kennedy School.Abstract

This chart visualizes the inquiry process for article 8 of CEDAW. 

cedaw-op_article_8_chart.pdf
Mischa Karplus. Working Paper. CEDAW Reservations: Family. Initiative on VAW, Carr Center, Harvard Kennedy School.Abstract

A list of all countries with reservations on CEDAW pertaining to the family.

cedaw_reservations-_family.pdf
Bastiaan Bruinsma and Kostas Gemenis. Working Paper. “Challenging the Manifesto Project data monopoly: Estimating policy position time-series using expert and mass survey data”.Abstract
Whenever researchers need to test theories and hypotheses using longitudinal data of political parties’ ideological and policy placement, they have little choice. Researchers are often constrained to use the Manifesto Project data, despite the extensive evidence that has challenged its reliability and validity. In this paper we show that it is possible to construct a unique and rich time-series of policy placements by combining expert and mass survey data, and addressing the problem of missing values through the Amelia II multiple imputation algorithm. Using data from Germany, the Netherlands, and Greece, we estimate the positions of parties on the left-right dimension and on a two-dimensional (socio-economic and socio-cultural) space, and show how the estimates outperform the Manifesto Project estimates in terms of their face validity.
bruinsmagemenis2017.pdf
Sophie Litschwartz and Luke Miratrix. Working Paper. “Characterizing Cross-Site Variation in Local Average Treatment Effects in Multisite RDD contexts with an Application to Massachusetts High School Exit Exam”.Abstract
      Multisite studies are a commonly used way to assess how a treatment works across contexts. In multisite random controlled trials (RCT), cross-site treatment effect variance is a way to quantify treatment effect variation. However, there are no standard methods for estimating cross-site treatment effect variation designed to be used in multisite regression discontinuity designs (RDD). In this research, we rectify this gap in the literature by developing and evaluating two methods for estimate cross-site treatment effect variance in RDDs. The first method combines a fixed intercepts/random coefficients (FIRC) model with a local linear RDD analysis. The second method borrows techniques from random effects meta-analysis and employs them with the RDD model. We find that although the FIRC model may look appealing ex-post to a researcher because it has a smaller confidence interval than the random effects meta-analysis model, simulations show the FIRC model estimates of the cross-site treatment effect standard deviation have substantial bias, poor coverage, and lack well defined confidence intervals. In contrast, the random effects meta-analysis estimates of the cross-site treatment effect standard deviation have good coverage across a range of conditions. We then apply these models to a high school exit exam policy in Massachusetts that required students who passed the high school exit exam but were still determined to be nonproficient to complete a Education Proficiency Plan". We find that students on the margin of proficiency required to complete an Education Proficiency Plan in math were seven percentage points more likely to complete a math course their senior year. However, if we assume normality, the cross-high school treatment effect standard deviation was high enough in three cohorts for the treatment effect to have been negative in more than a third of high schools. 
Litschwartz Miratrix Multi-Site RDD
Jan David Bakker, Alvaro Garcia-Marin, Andrei Potlogea, Nico Voigtländer, and Yang Yang. Working Paper. “Cities, Heterogeneous Firms, and Trade”.Abstract
We document a novel stylized fact: Using data for several countries, we show that export activity is disproportionately concentrated in larger cities – even more so than overall economic activity. We account for this fact by marrying elements of international trade and economic geography. (See rest of Abstract in File). 
bakker_et_al_cities_productivity_trade.pdf
David de la Croix, Matthias Doepke, and Joel Mokyr. Working Paper. “"Clans, Guilds, and Markets: Apprenticeship Institutions and Growth in the Pre-Industrial Economy"”. delacroixetal2016.pdf

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